Predicted Great Japanese Earthquake and Possible Tsunami and Nuclear Radiation Spread Across the Pacific Rim

Report by Dr. Quentin Reilly,
Australia / Papau New Guinea 2005-01
posted in
Networking the Pacific

Graphic map showing projected shockwaves from  predicted Japanese earthquake as  possible tsunami tidal wave spreaks across the Pacific ocean

Last week the United Nations held a World Disaster Conference in Kobe, Japan.  One of the exhibits that attracted great interest was a topographical map showing the four great tectonic plates that grind together along Japan's eastern and north western coasts, and the 30 year probabilities they will produce a serious earthquake.

The most dangerous line runs along the Pacific seabed off south central Honshu until it turns on to the coast near Shizuoka, 150 km south west of Tokyo.  This is where the Eurasian plate subducts or forces itself under itself.  The build-ups of tectonic tension releases itself by powerful offshore earth/sea-quakes every 150 years or so and very often cause a huge, fast moving tsunami.  The last such quake occurred in 1854 and anther is now overdue. 

There is now a 90% probability of a quake greater than magnitude 8 occurring off the Tokai coast, which runs form Nagoya to Shizuoka.  This means the quake could be of similar size that occurred off the coast of Aceh in Indonesia on December 26 last year [2004] and resulted in a great tsunami, which roared across the Indian Ocean to destroy villages and thousands of lives along the coast of India and Sri Lanka thousands of kilometres away as well as areas nearby to the quake.

Northern mainland Papua New Guinea and the New Guinea Islands could be in a similar position to India and Sri Lanka if a huge tsunami headed out from Japan.

Aerial view of area where Japan's nuclear reactors are located by the coast

Unfortunately the earthquake would also have another far-reaching effect as directly in the fault line at Hamaoka there are four nuclear reactors under operation and one is under test operation.  In spite that the nuclear power plants are predicted to be hit by the massive earthquake for the first time in history, the government and municipal office are merely repeating "They are absolutely safe"

Damage to these reactors from such an earthquake could cause a similar leakage of radioactivity that occurred at Chernobyl, in the Republic of Belarus, before, which spread far into Europe.  This cloud of radioactivity could be carried by the prevailing winds to our country and threaten foods and lives and produce horrendous effects, especially in children.  Although we cannot stop the occurrence of an earthquake, we can stop the nuclear power plants, and we can prepare for a tsunami.

As individuals we and our family and friends should sign the petition to stop the operation of these nuclear power plants and send it off immediately, to be collated with those of people from other countries, to:

41 Sunrise Boulevard,
Byron Bay,
Australia 2481.

see petition copy below

As individuals and governments for areas potentially affected by such a tsunami, preparations should be made in case such an earthquake occurs. Firstly a communication system must be established to ensure that people along the coastlines know if such an earthquake occurs in Japan. This means the supply and distribution of short wave radios, and batteries, that can monitor news broadcasts regularly so that people will be able to evacuate to higher ground in time. Telephones should be installed strategically to allow government and friends to send warnings in time to all areas likely to be devastated by a huge tsunami. Emergency communications systems should be established between nearby villages.

At the village and town level in the potentially affected areas, rapid evacuation plans to higher should be prepared and tested. Tempory shelter and food supplies should be readied in the areas where people would go for refuge. People should watch the sea carefully and if they see a sudden unexpected fall in sea level with the seabed becoming dry, they should realize that a tsunami is likely to be coming and run immediately to higher ground and sing out warning to others.

Direct line of communication should be established between the International Tsunami Warning Centre and the Provincial Disaster Management Committees of the at risk Provinces as well as with the National Disaster Management Committee.

I hope that National and Provincial Governments will immediately make preparations and plans to avert a tragedy in our country which could cost thousands of lives and ruin thousands of others.


The above report prepared by
Quentin Reilly
Public Health Specialist
Jan. 2005
Email c/o

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